Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADF80529
Mouchoirs - DALAA - Lot x3 - 550 feuilles - Doux - Résistants - Pratiques
longtail
3P
OBJET DE DECORATION - BIBELOT
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
740
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 24
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAADF80529
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 151 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mouchoirs - DALAA - Lot x3 - 550 feuilles - Doux - Résistants - Pratiques · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +66.7% · on-hand 841 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (315 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.08 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 62.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 150.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.6K |