Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADF80524
Mouchoirs blancs x300 unités - DALAA
longtail
1P + 3P
HYGIENE NEZ ET OREILLE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 11.8% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
307
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
118
≈ 92.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 6
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAADF80524
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 87 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mouchoirs blancs x300 unités - DALAA · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -11.8% · on-hand 117 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (714 days of history, 89 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 47.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 87.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 499 |