Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADF80524
Mouchoirs blancs x300 unités - DALAA
longtail
1P
HYGIENE NEZ ET OREILLE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▲ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+400.0%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
139
≈ 122.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 6
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-24
AAADF80524
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 91 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mouchoirs blancs x300 unités - DALAA · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending up +50.0% · on-hand 139 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (672 days of history, 69 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.95 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 29.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 90.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 580 |