Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADF80470
Papier hygiénique blanc 2 plis x12 rouleaux - FAYZ
longtail
3P
PAPIERS
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
283
Σ Stock across 2 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 23 sells · latest 2026-04-30
AAADF80470
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 56 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Papier hygiénique blanc 2 plis x12 rouleaux - FAYZ · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -71.4% · on-hand 283 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (651 days of history, 28 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.59 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 16.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 55.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 672 |