Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADC62387
Advance white crème blancheur 115g - ARM & AMMER
longtail
1P + 3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
77
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
30
≈ 100.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 46
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-02
AAADC62387
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 99 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Advance white crème blancheur 115g - ARM & AMMER · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 30 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (833 days of history, 24 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.54 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 99.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.5K |