Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADC62369
Lotion après-rasage DEEP 100ml - NIVEA MEN
longtail
1P + 3P
RASAGE - EPILATION
Last 4 weeks demand
2
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
20
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
2
≈ 5.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 64
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-29
AAADC62369
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 40 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lotion après-rasage DEEP 100ml - NIVEA MEN · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, stable demand · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (812 days of history, 28 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.34 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 11.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 40.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.6K |