Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADC45549
DOVE - Déodorant Original - Stick - 40g
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
21
▼ 65.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1,421
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAADC45549
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 156 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
DOVE - Déodorant Original - Stick - 40g · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 21 units, trending down -65.6% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (497 days of history, 308 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.04 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 21 units · prev 4w = 61 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 26.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 84.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 44.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 156.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.5K |