Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADC45549
DOVE - Déodorant Original - Stick - 40g
midtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 39.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+100.0%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
2
≈ 0.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAADC45549
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 157 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
DOVE - Déodorant Original - Stick - 40g · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -39.1% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (441 days of history, 245 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.01 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 18.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 54.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 54.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 157.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.5K |