Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADC45543
Fond de teint Magic Matte 07 30ml - SYN AND ZYN
longtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
40
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
32
≈ 173.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 39
avg of last 18 sells · latest 2026-09-14
AAADC45543
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 66 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Fond de teint Magic Matte 07 30ml - SYN AND ZYN · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 32 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (714 days of history, 16 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.63 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 8.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 66.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.6K |