Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADC45541
Déodorant spray Homme DEEP 200ml - NIVEA MEN
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 35.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
417
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
4
≈ 4.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 25
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-26
AAADC45541
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 79 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant spray Homme DEEP 200ml - NIVEA MEN · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -35.7% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (756 days of history, 53 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 12.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 41.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 78.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.0K |