Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACP13536
Shampooing à la gelée royale 650ml - CADUM
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 69.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
154
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
8
≈ 5.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-14
AAACP13536
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 155 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Shampooing à la gelée royale 650ml - CADUM · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -69.2% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (623 days of history, 122 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.48 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 67.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 154.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |