Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAACP13513
Savon perles orchidées noires et huile de genévrier Magical Beauty 85g - LUX
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-80.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
38
≈ 29.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 4
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAACP13513
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 58 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon perles orchidées noires et huile de genévrier Magical Beauty 85g - LUX · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 38 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (651 days of history, 72 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.61 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 13.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 57.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 252 |