Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACP13513
Savon perles orchidées noires et huile de genévrier Magical Beauty 85g - LUX
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 72.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
313
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
9
≈ 6.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 4
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-28
AAACP13513
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 80 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon perles orchidées noires et huile de genévrier Magical Beauty 85g - LUX · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -72.7% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (721 days of history, 86 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 22 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 12.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 42.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 79.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 310 |