Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACP13440
Gel douche magical orchid fragrance 500ml - LUX
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
52
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
13
≈ 5.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 17
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-25
AAACP13440
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 147 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel douche magical orchid fragrance 500ml - LUX · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (707 days of history, 141 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 2.26 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 12.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 56.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 146.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.4K |