Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACP13440
Gel douche magical orchid fragrance 500ml - LUX
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 400.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-37.5%
vs same 4w last year (8 units)
Current stock
5
≈ 2.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-21
AAACP13440
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 136 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel douche magical orchid fragrance 500ml - LUX · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +400.0% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (658 days of history, 165 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 2.23 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 24.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 135.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |