Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACP13418
Savon original 90g - DOVE
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
39
▲ 77.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
3,140
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 3
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-29
AAACP13418
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 391 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon original 90g - DOVE · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 39 units, trending up +77.3% · on-hand 3341 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (721 days of history, 297 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 3.44 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 39 units · prev 4w = 22 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 12.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 49.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 188.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 18.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 87.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 391.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |