Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACP13418
Savon original 90g - DOVE
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
24
▼ 22.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-38.5%
vs same 4w last year (39 units)
Current stock
1,203
≈ 157.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 7
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAACP13418
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 312 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon original 90g - DOVE · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 24 units, trending down -22.6% · on-hand 1203 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (665 days of history, 622 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 3.54 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 24 units · prev 4w = 31 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 8.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 36.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 98.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 17.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 84.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 312.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.1K |