Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACP13381
Dentifrice optic white expert white 75ml - COLGATE
longtail
1P
DENTAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 49
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-02
AAACP13381
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 43 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Dentifrice optic white expert white 75ml - COLGATE · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (756 days of history, 43 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 43.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |