Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACO98069
Palette de fards à paupières - MUA - Illusionniste - 15 teintes - Mat et métallisé - Multicolore
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
9
Σ Stock across 3 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 63
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-03-17
AAACO98069
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 56 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Palette de fards à paupières - MUA - Illusionniste - 15 teintes - Mat et métallisé - Multicolore · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (735 days of history, 30 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 16.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 56.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.6K |