Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACO41622
Boîte micro-ondes - HOBBY LIFE - 3 compartiments - Couleur aléatoire - Polypropylène - Résistante aux températures élevées
longtail
1P
ACCESSOIRE DE MEUBLE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
2
≈ 1.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-22
AAACO41622
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 50 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Boîte micro-ondes - HOBBY LIFE - 3 compartiments - Couleur aléatoire - Polypropylène - Résistante aux températures élevées · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (315 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.96 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 14.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 3.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 50.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 593 |