Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACO41455
EGOUTTOIR RECTANGULAIRE A VAISSELLE 2 NIVEAUX GRIS METALLISE
longtail
3P
ACCESSOIRE DE CUISINE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 28.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+233.3%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
275
≈ 358.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 56
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAACO41455
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 78 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
EGOUTTOIR RECTANGULAIRE A VAISSELLE 2 NIVEAUX GRIS METALLISE · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -28.6% · on-hand 275 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (686 days of history, 34 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 29.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 78.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.4K |