Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAACL09341
Ensemble de 3 Pièces de Moules à Biscuits - S/M/L
longtail
1P
USTENSILES PATISSERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
new activity (no prior baseline)
Year-over-year
+500.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
20
≈ 21.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 99
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-04
AAACL09341
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 109 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ensemble de 3 Pièces de Moules à Biscuits - S/M/L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (742 days of history, 91 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.90 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 29.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 109.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.8K |