Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACL09337
Pot d'épices - GENERIC - 65ml - Verre - Design contemporain - Ensemble de 2 pièces
longtail
1P
USTENSILES DE CUISINE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
60
Σ Stock across 4 live offers
1P stock
25
≈ 23.7 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 74
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-15
AAACL09337
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 56 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pot d'épices - GENERIC - 65ml - Verre - Design contemporain - Ensemble de 2 pièces · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 25 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (371 days of history, 55 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.86 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 17.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 55.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.1K |