Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACL09337
Pot d'épices - GENERIC - 65ml - Verre - Design contemporain - Ensemble de 2 pièces
longtail
1P + 3P
USTENSILES DE CUISINE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 22.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
45
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
11
≈ 9.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 65
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAACL09337
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 72 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pot d'épices - GENERIC - 65ml - Verre - Design contemporain - Ensemble de 2 pièces · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -22.2% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (413 days of history, 68 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.79 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 36.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.7K |