Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACL09324
BOUTEILLE ISOTHERME INOX DBLE PAROI 500ML ROUGE M
longtail
3P
MULTISPORT
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
40
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 50
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-14
AAACL09324
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 42 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
BOUTEILLE ISOTHERME INOX DBLE PAROI 500ML ROUGE M · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -71.4% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (735 days of history, 21 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 6.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 41.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.1K |