Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAACL08831
Bocal En Verre Avec Couvercle - 100ml
longtail
1P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+300.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-27
AAACL08831
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 67 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bocal En Verre Avec Couvercle - 100ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (679 days of history, 54 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 19.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 67.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 621 |