Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACL08827
Bol à Salade Rond en Porcelaine Blanche – 20,3 cm
longtail
1P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
33
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
33
≈ 15.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
AAACL08827
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 286 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bol à Salade Rond en Porcelaine Blanche – 20,3 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 33 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (756 days of history, 200 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.32 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 73.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 286.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |