Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACL08815
Bol à Salade Rond en Porcelaine Blanche – 22,9 cm
longtail
1P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
31
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
31
≈ 41.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 28 sells · latest 2026-07-24
AAACL08815
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 153 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bol à Salade Rond en Porcelaine Blanche – 22,9 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 31 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (679 days of history, 73 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.27 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 59.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 153.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.9K |