Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAACL08802
Moule à gâteau Angel Food – Ø 26 cm x H 10 cm
longtail
3P
USTENSILES PATISSERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
22
≈ 41.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 62
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAACL08802
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 51 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Moule à gâteau Angel Food – Ø 26 cm x H 10 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, stable demand · on-hand 22 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (595 days of history, 38 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 14.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 3.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 51.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.2K |