Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACK62826
Paille en Bambou - Marron - Lot de 4 - Réutilisables - Goupillon inclus - 22 cm
longtail
1P + 3P
VAISSELLE JETABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 93.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
55
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
20
≈ 14.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 16
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-10
AAACK62826
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Paille en Bambou - Marron - Lot de 4 - Réutilisables - Goupillon inclus - 22 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -93.3% · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (819 days of history, 23 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.72 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 6.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |