Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACK34142
Aer Power Pocket Berry Rush 10g
longtail
3P
PRODUIT D'ENTRETIEN
Last 4 weeks demand
20
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
32
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 26 sells · latest 2026-04-14
AAACK34142
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 74 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Aer Power Pocket Berry Rush 10g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 20 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 32 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (763 days of history, 56 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.56 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 20 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 21.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 74.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |