Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACI55077
Protection solaire - La Roche Posay - Anthelios Cr Fondante UVMUNE 400 - SPF 50 - 50ml - Eau Thermale 50ml
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
28
▲ 47.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+64.7%
vs same 4w last year (17 units)
Current stock
6,964
≈ 3531.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 146
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAACI55077
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 153 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Protection solaire - La Roche Posay - Anthelios Cr Fondante UVMUNE 400 - SPF 50 - 50ml - Eau Thermale 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 28 units, trending up +47.4% · on-hand 6964 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (742 days of history, 109 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.09 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 28 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 19.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 47.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 52.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 152.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 22.3K |