Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACI01533
Herôme Duo Pack – Durcisseur Extra Fort + Dissolvant.
midtail
1P + 3P
ONGLERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▲ 77.8% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
963
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
10
≈ 3.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 195
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAACI01533
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 168 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Herôme Duo Pack – Durcisseur Extra Fort + Dissolvant. · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending up +77.8% · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (868 days of history, 214 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.90 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 63.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 168.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 32.7K |