Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAACI01533
Herôme Duo Pack – Durcisseur Extra Fort + Dissolvant.
midtail
1P
ONGLERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 70.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
79
≈ 23.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 184
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAACI01533
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 138 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Herôme Duo Pack – Durcisseur Extra Fort + Dissolvant. · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -70.6% · on-hand 79 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (742 days of history, 160 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 18.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 48.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 47.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 138.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 25.5K |