Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAACA46869
Hemani Huile coco hemani Coconut Oil - 400 mL
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
42
≈ 45.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 42
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAACA46869
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 65 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Hemani Huile coco hemani Coconut Oil - 400 mL · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 42 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (763 days of history, 70 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.69 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 23.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 64.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |