Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABZ54295
OREILLER SAADA 70X45CM 700G
longtail
1P
LINGE DE LIT
Last 4 weeks demand
17
▼ 15.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+183.3%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
23
≈ 14.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 48
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAABZ54295
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 164 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
OREILLER SAADA 70X45CM 700G · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 17 units, trending down -15.0% · on-hand 23 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (763 days of history, 109 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.02 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 17 units · prev 4w = 20 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 8.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 26.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 61.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 16.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 61.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 164.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.9K |