Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABY44011
Parfum - Al Rehab - Choco Musk - Eau de parfum - 50ml - Notes gourmandes et épicées
midtail
3P
PARFUM
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
11
≈ 1.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 59
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAABY44011
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 218 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Parfum - Al Rehab - Choco Musk - Eau de parfum - 50ml - Notes gourmandes et épicées · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -71.4% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (742 days of history, 11 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.06 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 39.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 218.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.8K |