Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAABW02792
LOT DE 2 DEO AXE BLACK 150ML
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
0
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P)
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAABW02792
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 120 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
LOT DE 2 DEO AXE BLACK 150ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (826 days of history, 74 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.38 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 31.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 120.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |