Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAABW02789
Lot de 2 Déodorants en spray Axe Green Mojito & Bois de Cèdre pour homme - 150 ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 86.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+0.0%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-08
AAABW02789
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 152 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lot de 2 Déodorants en spray Axe Green Mojito & Bois de Cèdre pour homme - 150 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -86.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (756 days of history, 173 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.20 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 45 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 7.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 23.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 50.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 17.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 61.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 151.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.5K |