Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABW02788
LOT DE 2 DEO AXE APOLLO 150ML
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAABW02788
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 135 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
LOT DE 2 DEO AXE APOLLO 150ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (763 days of history, 147 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.61 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 16.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 40.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 13.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 47.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 134.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.9K |