Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABW02788
LOT DE 2 DEO AXE APOLLO 150ML
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 37.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
11
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
11
≈ 8.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 27
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-21
AAABW02788
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 145 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
LOT DE 2 DEO AXE APOLLO 150ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -37.5% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (819 days of history, 159 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.64 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 67.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 145.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.9K |