Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABU88196
Roller massage pour visage et cou original + Cadeau de choix Alms Shop
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 94.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
9,989
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 16
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-23
AAABU88196
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 30 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Roller massage pour visage et cou original + Cadeau de choix Alms Shop · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -94.1% · on-hand 9989 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (889 days of history, 36 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.93 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 4.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 30.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 480 |