Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABP78414
RATEAU 5 DENTS MANCHE METAL ET PLASTIC 24x8.5CM
longtail
3P
OUTILS D'EXTERIEUR - DE JARDIN
Last 4 weeks demand
22
▲ 450.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
16
Σ Stock across 5 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 7
avg of last 25 sells · latest 2026-04-21
AAABP78414
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 69 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
RATEAU 5 DENTS MANCHE METAL ET PLASTIC 24x8.5CM · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 22 units, trending up +450.0% · on-hand 16 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (469 days of history, 55 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.23 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 22 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 16.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 69.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 460 |