Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABP76522
Sérum Réparateur Capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Texture Sérum - Cheveux Secs - Protection Thermique 230°C
hero
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
26
▲ 85.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+160.0%
vs same 4w last year (10 units)
Current stock
58
≈ 6.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 64
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAABP76522
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 219 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum Réparateur Capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Texture Sérum - Cheveux Secs - Protection Thermique 230°C · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 26 units, trending up +85.7% · on-hand 58 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (777 days of history, 540 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.94 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 26 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 21.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 62.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 63.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 218.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.0K |