Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABP76522
Sérum Réparateur Capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Texture Sérum - Cheveux Secs - Protection Thermique 230°C
hero
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
26
▼ 35.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
342
Σ Stock across 7 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
151
≈ 16.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 59
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAABP76522
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 376 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum Réparateur Capillaire - Garnier - Ultra Doux - Texture Sérum - Cheveux Secs - Protection Thermique 230°C · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 26 units, trending down -35.0% · on-hand 151 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (896 days of history, 594 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.88 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 26 units · prev 4w = 40 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 9.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 106.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 26.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 18.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 80.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 376.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 12.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 22.4K |