Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABP07302
AAABP07302
longtail
1P + 3P
MAROQUINERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
21
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-11-03
1P stock
6
≈ 10.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-11-03
Unit price
MAD 154
avg of last 4 sells · latest 2026-10-21
AAABP07302
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-11-02 · Total forecast: 161 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AAABP07302 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (42 days of history, 4 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.00 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 8.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 44.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 160.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 24.7K |