Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABN88908
Céréales infantiles au lait et blé 250g - CERELAC
hero
3P
LAIT ET CEREALES
Last 4 weeks demand
32
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
419
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 5
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAABN88908
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 762 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Céréales infantiles au lait et blé 250g - CERELAC · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 32 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 459 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (903 days of history, 544 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.67 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 32 units · prev 4w = 56 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 247.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 29.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 94.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 762.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.8K |