Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABM69385
Diffuseur d'Huiles Essentielles 2W MF109253 Citytek Box3-Couleur Aléatoire
longtail
1P + 3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
23
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
12
≈ 8.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 53
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
AAABM69385
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 50 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Diffuseur d'Huiles Essentielles 2W MF109253 Citytek Box3-Couleur Aléatoire · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (539 days of history, 69 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.05 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 11.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 12.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 49.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.6K |