Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABK77931
Crayons Triangulaires Graphite HB2 avec gomme Black'Peps x6 - MAPED
longtail
3P
DESSIN - COLORIAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
207
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 6 sells · latest 2026-09-16
AAABK77931
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 15 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crayons Triangulaires Graphite HB2 avec gomme Black'Peps x6 - MAPED · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 209 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (868 days of history, 4 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.56 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 0.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 3.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 15.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 266 |