Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABG50766
Après-shampoing - URBAN CARE - Kératine Intense - 200ml - Réparateur - Lissant sans rinçage
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
29
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 73
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-07
AAABG50766
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 55 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Après-shampoing - URBAN CARE - Kératine Intense - 200ml - Réparateur - Lissant sans rinçage · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, stable demand · on-hand 31 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (798 days of history, 46 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.48 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 11.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 55.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.0K |