Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABF73938
1 SACHET DE 2 PILES R03 SUPERLUX
longtail
3P
PILES
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
70
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P)
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 1
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAABF73938
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 121 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
1 SACHET DE 2 PILES R03 SUPERLUX · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -71.4% · on-hand 70 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (917 days of history, 133 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.09 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 42 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 36.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 12.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 39.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 120.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 74 |