Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABD98579
Gel Douche - Lux - Magical Orchid - 250 ml - Sans parabène - Mixte
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
199
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 23
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-08
AAABD98579
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 32 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Douche - Lux - Magical Orchid - 250 ml - Sans parabène - Mixte · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (861 days of history, 48 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.01 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 4 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 5.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 10.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 31.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 739 |