Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABD98571
Gel Douche - FAYZ - Pêche - 750 ml - Sans alcool - Sans colorant
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▲ 133.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
284
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
6
≈ 3.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-25
AAABD98571
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Douche - FAYZ - Pêche - 750 ml - Sans alcool - Sans colorant · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending up +133.3% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (917 days of history, 108 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 4 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 16.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 666 |