Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABD98571
Gel Douche - FAYZ - Pêche - 750 ml - Sans alcool - Sans colorant
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 44.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
111
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
8
≈ 4.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAABD98571
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 78 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Douche - FAYZ - Pêche - 750 ml - Sans alcool - Sans colorant · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -44.4% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (861 days of history, 111 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 2 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 40.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 77.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 759 |