Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABD98569
GEL DOUCHE NOIX DE COCO, 750 ML FAYZ
midtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▲ 28.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-67.9%
vs same 4w last year (28 units)
Current stock
8
≈ 2.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAABD98569
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 124 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
GEL DOUCHE NOIX DE COCO, 750 ML FAYZ · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending up +28.6% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (805 days of history, 187 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.76 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 124.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |