Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABD31918
BABY SET TALC 100G - FRESH
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 57.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
98
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
80
≈ 114.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 11
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-29
AAABD31918
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 81 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
BABY SET TALC 100G - FRESH · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -57.1% · on-hand 80 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (861 days of history, 53 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 12.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 43.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 81.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 910 |