Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABD31918
BABY SET TALC 100G - FRESH
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▲ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
132
Σ Stock across 8 live offers
1P stock
117
≈ 182.0 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 11
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAABD31918
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 72 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
BABY SET TALC 100G - FRESH · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending up +60.0% · on-hand 117 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (819 days of history, 39 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.51 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 17.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 785 |