Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABD31878
SHAMP. FOR MEN DEEP CLEAN NIVEA 250ML
longtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
306
Σ Stock across 7 live offers
1P stock
12
≈ 17.2 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-27
AAABD31878
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 63 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SHAMP. FOR MEN DEEP CLEAN NIVEA 250ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +25.0% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (812 days of history, 50 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.50 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 63.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |