Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABD31878
SHAMP. FOR MEN DEEP CLEAN NIVEA 250ML
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▲ 40.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
19
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
5
≈ 7.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 25
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-28
AAABD31878
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 75 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SHAMP. FOR MEN DEEP CLEAN NIVEA 250ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending up +40.0% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (854 days of history, 65 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.36 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 38.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 75.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.9K |