Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABD31873
Johnson's - Shampoing Johnson's Baby Gold - 750 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 88.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
98
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
12
≈ 6.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 24
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-25
AAABD31873
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 134 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Johnson's - Shampoing Johnson's Baby Gold - 750 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -88.2% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (854 days of history, 162 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.67 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 58.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 134.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |