Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABD31873
Johnson's - Shampoing Johnson's Baby Gold - 750 ml
longtail
1P
HYGIENE BEBE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 76.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+1400.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 21
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAABD31873
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 208 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Johnson's - Shampoing Johnson's Baby Gold - 750 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -76.2% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (805 days of history, 153 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.71 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 63 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 6.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 26.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 60.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 21.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 83.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 208.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.3K |