Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABC86447
SÉRIE 3 BOLS 460 BLEU TRAD
midtail
3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 70.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-50.0%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
443
≈ 106.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 6
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-28
AAABC86447
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 166 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SÉRIE 3 BOLS 460 BLEU TRAD · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -70.0% · on-hand 443 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (812 days of history, 283 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.54 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 13.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 38.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 57.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 166.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 956 |