Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABC10908
SET 3 BOITES ALIMENATIRE (400ML / 670ML / 1,2L)
longtail
1P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▲ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
14
≈ 4.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAABC10908
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 116 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SET 3 BOITES ALIMENATIRE (400ML / 670ML / 1,2L) · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending up +75.0% · on-hand 14 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (798 days of history, 103 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.79 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 32.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 116.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |