Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAABC10908
SET 3 BOITES ALIMENATIRE (400ML / 670ML / 1,2L)
longtail
1P + 3P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
20
▲ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
120
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
12
≈ 4.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAABC10908
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 128 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SET 3 BOITES ALIMENATIRE (400ML / 670ML / 1,2L) · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 20 units, trending up +66.7% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (910 days of history, 144 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.68 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 20 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 41.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 40.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 127.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |